Thursday, 27 October 2016

UK economy defies fears of slowdown after Brexit vote



Britain’s economy performed far better than expected in after the Brexit vote, with GDP growth falling to 0.5% from 0.7% in the previous quarter.
The strong showing, which defied City forecasts that growth would more than halve to 0.3%, came after the dominant services sector expanded at a faster rate in the past three months than during the period before the referendum vote.
But the figures were marred by a contraction in agriculture, construction and manufacturing that prompted business groups to urge the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to use the autumn statement next month to support measures that boost investment and productivity.
The data from the Office for National Statistics covers the three months to the end of September and is the first official verdict on how the economy has performed since Britain voted to leave the European Union.
The main boost to services came from transport, storage and communication, which grew at its fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2009, rising 2.2% over the period in contrast to 0.6% in the second quarter.
The ONS said higher output in the film, music and TV sectors was the main driver, indicating that Britain’s creative industries sailed through the uncertainty surrounding the referendum unscathed.
The expansion of the services sector helped to offset the steepest fall in construction since the third quarter of 2012, with a slide in new housebuilding dragging the entire building industry down 1.4% between July and September.
Manufacturing dropped by 1% in the third quarter, while production fell 0.4% and agriculture slipped by 0.7%.
The figures rule out the prospect of a technical recession – defined by two consecutive quarters of contraction – in the second half of the year that was predicted by many economists before the referendum vote.
The 0.5% rise also beat the latest forecasts from Bank of England policymakers, who were predicting at the time of the August inflation report that third quarter growth would come in at 0.1%.
Threadneedle Street is likely to use the data as a reason to delay any further stimulus to the economy until next year, placing further pressure on the Treasury to support industry.
Hammond said the figures demonstrated the resilience of the UK economy, which was “well-placed” to deal with the challenges and opportunities created by the EU referendum.
“We are moving into a period of negotiations with the EU and we are determined to get the very best deal for households and businesses. The economy will need to adjust to a new relationship with the EU, but we are well-placed to deal with the challenges and take advantage of opportunities ahead.”

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